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Economy grew at annualized rate of 1% in Q4, Statistics Canada says



The Canadian economy exhibited a modest growth of one percent in the fourth quarter, according to recent data released by Statistics Canada. While this expansion reflects a positive trend, it comes against the backdrop of persistently high interest rates that have become a notable factor influencing economic dynamics. Despite these challenges, the growth was robust enough to prevent the economy from slipping into a recession, providing a mixed outlook for the nation's financial landscape.


The uptick in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter marked a turnaround from the preceding period, which saw a 0.5 percent annualized decline. The driving forces behind this growth were the increased exports, showcasing the resilience of the Canadian economy in the face of various challenges. However, the positive momentum was offset by contractions in both the housing and business investment sectors.


December, a crucial month in economic assessments, witnessed a stagnation in real GDP. This stagnation was attributed to contractions in goods-producing industries and the impact of a public sector workers' strike in Quebec. The overall economic scenario for the year 2023, excluding the anomalous conditions of 2020, indicated a sluggish pace of growth, marking the slowest expansion since 2016.


A key factor contributing to the economic narrative is the persistently high interest rates implemented by the Bank of Canada, currently standing at five percent, the highest since 2001. This has had a cascading effect on the financial well-being of Canadians. Renewals of mortgages at higher rates have prompted a decline in consumer spending, translating into a slowdown in sales for businesses across the nation.


The report highlights a nuanced scenario in consumer spending. While it experienced an increase for the quarter, the per capita basis saw a continued decline. This paradoxical situation can be attributed to the substantial population growth Canada is currently undergoing, emphasizing the importance of considering demographic factors in economic analyses.


Looking forward, a preliminary estimate suggests a modest growth of 0.4 percent in real GDP for January. The Bank of Canada, anticipating the need for responsive measures, has hinted at a potential rate cut in its future moves. Inflation, a significant economic indicator, showed a decline to 2.9 percent in January, indicative of a broader deceleration in price growth.


Economists are closely monitoring the situation, with many anticipating a potential key rate reduction around the middle of the year. However, the urgency of such a measure may be tempered by the resilience exhibited by the economy, potentially delaying the central bank's decision. The upcoming interest rate decision announcement by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday is eagerly awaited, as it may offer further insights into the nation's economic trajectory and the central bank's strategy in navigating these complex financial waters.


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